Assessing College Vulnerability
In June 2009, Chronicle Research Services released a compelling report: The College of 2020: Students. It is an overview of student and marketplace trends that will have a dramatic impact on colleges. The report includes data for traditional, adult, and international students. The report is available for purchase from Chronicle Research Services.
While all these data are valuable, it is the report’s conclusion that I find most telling. In the final pages, the authors outline three broad types of colleges and predict their likelihood of surviving, even thriving, in the years to come.
In this post I will excerpt heavily from the report’s conclusion and then offer an expanded description of the colleges that are most vulnerable.
The College of 2020: Students – Conclusion
The report concludes, “Colleges have three basic business models for attracting and keeping students. Two [models] will continue to work in the next decade, and one almost certainly will not.”
“The business model for the most elite colleges with sterling brand names, and for most flagship public universities, will continue to work for the foreseeable future. At those institutions, the demand for a brand-name degree and the traditional residential model will remain higher than the supply.”
“The model for for-profit colleges and community colleges is also strong. They cater to older students who have no time for a traditional college ‘experience’ but want and need courses that are available at times and in formats that fit their schedules.”
NOTE: I would add regional publics that are adept at serving both traditional age and adult students to this category.
“And then there are the many colleges in the middle. They don’t have well-known brand names and wide recognition that draw crowds…For too long, these colleges have stuck with the same business model. They have hesitated to take courses online, to cater to adult and part-time students, and to offer courses at any time other than on weekdays between 9 and 5. When it is common for private colleges to give away their product at about a 40 percent discount, it might be time to question whether the business model can continue.”
Wow.
Schools most vulnerable
Based on studies, conversations, and observations, I believe that the following characteristics describe these vulnerable “colleges in the middle”:
- Unable to make tough decisions in a timely fashion
- Removed from major population centers
- Private
- Focus largely on residential undergraduate students
- Have a high discount rate (uncertain brand value)
- Have a cost that is higher than major competitors
- Have few unallocated dollars (little ability to invest in a new initiative)
- Academic programs are indistinguishable from those of its competitors
- Aid for current students is disproportionately loan-based aid
Granted, our current economic climate has exacerbated many of the issues that are facing today’s colleges, but these issues have been on the radar screens of cabinets and boards for a decade or more. One reason that so many schools are in crisis now is that they refused to deal with issues that should have been dealt with years ago.
I want to close by focusing on one “bullet”: leadership. It is the quality of leadership—not external market forces—that will spell the difference between an institution that thrives and one that is marginalized or even fails. More than anything, these “middle colleges” need presidents, cabinets, and boards which are willing to squarely face the issues, develop a compelling vision, outline a clear strategy, work together, and execute.
In a previous post I quoted Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., and noted that colleges—especially those colleges in the middle—must be gripped by a fierce urgency of now. If not, there is little likelihood that they will have much of a future.
Photo by jenlight
